Today's Market Moves

October 16, 2017

Today $FB and $BABA were quite volatile but ultimately closed little changed from where they opened. I am worried $FB will gap and run tomorrow, but I was certain that would happen today, and it didn't. $SMH played out like it has every day over the past few weeks: open higher, flush in the open, trade up back to the open by lunch, and close 0.20 higher than the open. $SMH is sitting just underneath my line-in-the-sand at 98 ... I still remain convinced that it will pull back, but at some point, you have to call it quits. With the $BABA position, I am upset that after all this time and honestly favorable price action that it's relatively unchanged, up just a handful of bucks. Earlier this morning it was up quite a bit, but as these things go, the bid/ask spread was so blown-out that that price was likely inaccurate. Long story short, nothing has changed in those positions although I will be watching them very closely as the week progresses. See the Saturday Portfolio Analysis for my game plan.

 

Now for the new move today. I discussed some other earnings opportunities in the Weekly Trade IDEAS video for today, but I missed this one in $GS. Unfortunately strike selection wasn't what I would have liked, so I am taking more risk than I ever like to in earnings. The position is the 227.5/232.5/250/255 Iron Condor expiring Friday, Oct20. Got 0.70 for it, which seems low given the spread is 5 dollars wide, but in exchange for more risk, I get wider breakevens, which right now I would like. The 2.5 dollar wide variant yielded perhaps a nickel more in net credit if you get that filled.

 

These recent developments with my portfolio have shot my confidence in all honesty and I'm under a heavy amount of stress. It doesn't look good to have so many losers when you're trying to get out there and help educate traders on how to not just avoid losses, but how to go on to make consistent profits. Some of the reasons for this underperformance are due to me breaking my own rules, others are just normal market reasons (read: the market went against you, but you did everything right).

 

I'll be making a video about how to deal with a string of losers when using quantitative trading strategies that will be out this week over at my YouTube channel (link at the bottom of the page)

 

Hopefully Goldman will behave for earnings tomorrow morning, and $SMH and $FB will ... ah who knows maybe I should have bailed on those two today. You never know what might happen! I chose to pass on the $CSX earnings trade discussed in today's video, and just you watch; $GS will move way outside the expected range and $CSX won't move at all. The position I passed on will profit while the position I took will be a big loser. It would be awful fitting given my recent performance...

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