Saturday Portfolio Analysis

February 24, 2018

I do not have the time to make a full-fledged SPA video today as I am super busy with finishing up the CLT Options Member site and the C.T.C. Instead, here's a brief write-up about what happened with week with my remaining open positions and the plan going forward:

 

Not much changed this week in terms of open P/L except in one position, $XLU. This position was unadjusted as it was originated as an iron butterfly. Last week, when the stock was trading under 50, the position was down ~$80 - now with stock above 50, the position is actually profitable, albeit slightly, at around +$20.

 

The majority of the reduction in current unrealized losses has been from this development. Currently, my open P/L is -$700 or just under.

 

As I predicted, now my problem is that the adjusted call legs of these adjusted positions are deep ITM instead of the put legs. I still plan to hold on to the majority of these positions until early March, somewhere between 3/2 and 3/9. If I can find a better opportunity to close before then, I will. What I'm looking for a now is a little bit of sideways action and a little bit to the downside over the next 2 weeks. If by some miracle, ULP is anywhere near the short strikes of these positions by that week in March, I will be a very happy man. If not, well, unrealized losses won't be too much higher than they are right now and I'll probably have to bite the bullet.

 

So was adjusting the right way to go? Well given the almost complete snapback in the market and the gift of perfect 20/20 vision when looking in hindsight, no. But I always try to find a positive somewhere. These adjustments have given me peace of mind in a way; knowing that I couldn't really lose a whole lot more for a few weeks, I have been able to chug along on the work that needed to be done on the course and the site. Of course I'd rather have lost less but hey, nobody's perfect. I look forward to the day when I can begin to recoup these unfortunate losses. I have learned many lessons - the hard way - and going forward it's all going to be about strict adherence to the rules and discipline. Again, I have to emphasize that what happened during this recent market turmoil has been unprecedented for over half a decade and that I was certainly not the only one who lost on the way down - I just might be the only one who didn't gain on the way back up. We sort-of knew that the market would bounce back, we just didn't know where the bottom was or by how much or how quickly that it would bounce back. Now that we have those answers, I look foolish, but always remember that hindsight is 20/20 while foresight is basically blindness. I will become a better trader by learning from my mistakes, which, if, when stuff like this happens and that's your only positive, you have to take it.

 

In the upcoming Quarterly Review video I may go more in-depth on what actually happened with these positions and will probably defend myself more about why I didn't necessarily make bad choices, I just timed them poorly, as it turned out.

 

CLT Options membership should be available by the end of the day Wednesday, February 28 or by early Thursday, March 1. I sincerely apologize for all the delays, but I really want to make sure that everything is done the right way the first time and that the launch goes off without any problems. I'm a one-man company with a lot to do and not a lot of time to do it. I hope you can understand.

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