Trade IDEAS - June 19, 2018

June 19, 2018

Volatility is squashed across the market as is typical during the early summer. Historically, volatility kicks up again in September / October. So these trades ideas will be focused on taking advantage of low IV, accounting for a possible rise.

 

$GDX - this gold miners ETF has incredibly low IV right now, about the 9th percentile. Normally, I would say that a calendar spread would be ideal here, but an Iron Butterfly would give you a much large breakeven range, increasing the chance of success. The IB is vega short, so a rise in IV would be damaging, but as long as such a rise is mild, time decay will overpower it. Check out the Jul-27 20/22/24 Iron Butterfly.

 

$AIG - a large insurance company with great option liquidity, also with very low IV, at the 3rd percentile. Earnings come around August 2, and IV is likely to rise between now and earnings, as it tends to do. Guessing which direction it goes is anyone's guess, so, why not take advantage of that by buying the Aug/Nov 55 Put Calendar spread?

 

$M - What a comeback for this retailer! It's been on a tear but all ripping stocks must "take a breather" before going higher. The stock just had a big breakout and I'm thinking it will settle a little bit before taking off again. For right now, I'd check out the Aug/Nov 38 Put Calendar, as it gives a good breakeven range and allows for an increase in IV. But if I'm wrong and $M continues to rip higher, 45.50 is the level to watch. If $M trades above that level, which was a big double-top in 2016, I think that would be huge and signal that this comeback is real.

 

$FEZ - this is the outlier trade. Europe is getting hammered right now and this ETF of European stocks is currently trading below the February lows. I think it's oversold, so I would say a bullish trade with a small risk is OK. I wouldn't get too fancy; a straight-up debit call vertical will work just fine. If $FEZ trades above 39.23 you can just take off the short call for extra delta exposure if things go your way. Take a look at the Aug 38/40 Call Vertical

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