Trade IDEAS - June 25, 2018

June 25, 2018

And just like that, volatility makes a jump in the market. I would wait until the end of the session tomorrow before really trying to trade around this jump, because I've got a feeling it won't last - but of course, I don't know.

 

$SMH - Semis have taken a beating over the last week or so. Looking at the chart and what can be done from a Delta neutral perspective, I would say give this a day or two. It could set up for a nice Bull Put spread, and if it keeps dropping, then it would set up nicely for an Iron Condor. The short call strike for a well constructed Iron Condor is too near the recent highs and if $SMH jumps after this recent down move, that strike (110) will be tested quickly and then you'll be in a tight spot. 

 

$XLE - This energy stock ETF is also seeing an uptick in IV, but not as much as in $SMH. A well constructed Iron Condor has the same problem as $SMH at this time; the short call strike (77) is too close to the recent highs. That said, I don't think this sets up for a directional trade all that well. I would wait and see where this trades tomorrow at least before trying to construct a Delta neutral trade around it.

 

You almost never want to just jump in and go short Vega and Delta neutral on one day's drop that causes a spike in IV. Let the dust clear a little bit first.

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