Trade Ideas | 8/15/18

August 15, 2018

The Chinese Yuan situation is adding to the volatility being cause by Turkey. All that means to us is that there are more opportunities to sell volatility!

 

$GLD - gold has gotten beaten up this year. It surprises me that with a currency crisis taking place in at least one economy and potentially in another that gold is not trading up. That said, IV has increased, and is now at a level where selling some premium is attractive. I would trade a "dynamic" iron condor here, with a slight skew to the upside. All that means is that you need to sell calls & puts with approximate Delta absolute values instead of strikes equidistant from current ULP.

 

 

$EEM - it goes without saying why emerging markets are suffering. I don't see a huge rush to buy in the works unless there is some reason for a short squeeze to occur. Also, I think the downside from here is limited over the short term. Therefore, I would recommend being Delta neutral, although I don't necessarily have a problem with being Delta long, seeing as this ETF is quite oversold. It's just that I would favor Delta neutral over it.

 

 

$USO - oil continues to have high IV, and a couple weeks ago I had a trade in $USO as an idea. I think it would be OK to ladder this trade into the previous trade, so long as doing so doesn't break your max risk parameters.

 

 

Keep some cash / margin on hand in case these developments in global markets lead to more increases in the $VIX.

 

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