Trade Ideas | 11/27/18
Back from Thanksgiving and looking to open new positions. This is coming out late in the trading session today, but some of these trades are of a more "wait a day" nature anyway. These trades are for January 2019 expiration unless otherwise noted:
$FEYE - This stock is sitting here 52 week highs and is neither overbought nor oversold. It recently bounced strongly off of gap support just under 17, so it probably won't have a revisit unless the market dives again. Going delta neutral via a tight Iron Condor leaves room for new highs and gives you an exit if $FEYE trades below 17.
$T - This stock continues to trade sideways and IV continues to remain elevated. Trading an Iron Fly was profitable here before, so just reload that trade for Jan19 expiration.
$AAPL - I want to see this stock trade above 180 and hold before going long, with a target price of 197.5. $AAPL has gotten beat up as of late and looks like it may form a bottom, which to me would be signaled by trading and holding above 180.
$XLE - Oil has also gotten beat up lately and trying to go long at recent levels of support has been a losing trade. This ETF, however, is looking like it's going to form a double bottom. If we trade above 68 and stay sideways, I'd go delta neutral, but if we get above 68 with momentum, next stop is 72. Big "if" there with oil's price action, though.
$SMH - This ETF looks to have formed a double bottom as well, but it could lose momentum around 94-95. If it does, I'd look to go delta neutral and if not, I wouldn't bother going long because with next resistance at 100, there isn't enough upside potential to justify a long position. A breakout above 100 with momentum could suggest that, but again, a big "if."
$GM - This stock was a bit overbought after a cost-cutting announcement yesterday. The price action today shows that perhaps investors got ahead of themselves, so wait and see if the stock remains in the 36's for a day or two before going delta neutral.
$UPS - Trading sideways and with high IV still can mean only one thing: trading an Iron Fly. Breakevens are at recent support and resistance for that trade, giving an easy exit decision should UPS break the sideways trend.
$AAL - This stock has traded well off its lows but is now trading in a price range it held for the better part of 4 months. I think that can continue, so, a tight Iron Condor or Iron Fly would be the way to go.