Trade Ideas | 3/13/19

March 13, 2019

I feel like a broken record talking about a low and declining $VIX over the past few months. At this point, you know the drill. Sell Iron Butterflies into low IV - which has been working well! But first, I'll discuss other ideas:

 

$PFE - This stock needs to rebound a little more and test recent highs before I would like to sell an Iron Butterfly on it. Right now, the top breakeven on such a trade would sit right at that resistance level, and that's not a good set-up. Watch this one.

 

$AAPL - The stock has been recovering along with the overall market, but it has come a long way and is about to test the gap resistance at ~185. The stock is getting overbought, and so I think it will react negatively to a test of 185, but I don't know of course! Watch this one and play either a failure at resistance or what could be a breakout.

 

$EWZ - This is purely speculation. I know that all trading is speculation, but, this one is kind of crackpot. I think Brazil might work with Colombia in order to quell the situation in Venezuela, as there seems to be no bottom to the pit of misery that is Venezuela, and Maduro refuses to leave. I think, obviously, that such a move would cause Brazilian stocks to falter and IV to rise. So, a calendar centered on 42 would be a good way to play that. I'm against a diagonal because since I have no evidence whatsoever that such events might take place, I don't want to position overtly bearish.

 

$EEM and $GM - standard low IV Iron Butterflies here, nothing too interesting to talk about. They've worked in the past, and they'll probably work again!

 

 

 

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